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The Runner-Up Effect
Anagol, Santosh - 2014
Exploiting regression discontinuity designs in Brazilian, Indian, and Canadian first-past-the-post elections, we document that second-place candidates are substantially more likely than close third-place candidates to run in, and win, subsequent elections. Since both candidates lost the election...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013051749
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Can Electronic Procurement Improve Infrastructure Provision? Evidence from Public Works in India and Indonesia
Lewis-Faupel, Sean - 2015
this paper we develop a unique micro-dataset on public works procurement from two fast-growing economies, India and … Indonesia, and use regional and time variation in the adoption of e-procurement across both countries to examine its impact. We … improvements. In India, where we observe an independent measure of construction quality, e-procurement improves the average road …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013033032
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Political Budget Cycles : Evidence from Italian Cities
Alesina, Alberto F. - 2014
The introduction of a new real estate taxes in Italy in 2011 generated a natural experiment, which is useful to test political budget cycles, i.e. the strategic choice of fiscal variables in relation to elections. We do find substantial evidence of political budget cycles, with municipalities...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045647
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Political Cycles and Stock Returns
Pastor, Lubos - 2017
We develop a model of political cycles driven by time-varying risk aversion. Agents choose to work in the public or …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012962718
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Inversions in Us Presidential Elections : 1836-2016
Geruso, Michael - 2019
Inversions—in which the popular vote winner loses the election—have occurred in four US presidential races. We show that rather than being statistical flukes, inversions have been ex ante likely since the early 1800s. In elections yielding a popular vote margin within one point (one-eighth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012863253
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Changes in Marriage and Divorce as Drivers of Employment and Retirement of Older Women
Olivetti, Claudia - 2016
Participation (SIPP). We then exploit variation in laws governing divorce across states and over time to quasi … divorce significantly increases the probability of full-time employment later in life, and significantly decreases retirement … does not impact full-time employment after age 50 but is positively associated with investment in education post marriage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012981100
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Selection and Incentive Effects of Elections : Evidence from State Supreme Courts
Ash, Elliott - 2016
Using data on state supreme court judges for the years 1947 through 1994, we find that judges selected by nonpartisan elections and judges selected by technocratic merit commissions produce higher-quality work than judges selected by partisan elections. Election-year pressure reduces work...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996886
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One in a Million : Field Experiments on Perceived Closeness of the Election and Voter Turnout
Gerber, Alan - 2017
A common feature of many models of voter turnout is that increasing the perceived closeness of the election should increase voter turnout. However, cleanly testing this prediction is difficult and little is known about voter beliefs regarding the closeness of a given race. We conduct a field...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012964899
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The Household Fallacy
Farmer, Roger E. A. - 2018
We refer to the idea that government must 'tighten its belt' as a necessary policy response to higher indebtedness as the household fallacy. We provide a reason to be skeptical of this claim that holds even if the economy always operates at full employment and all markets clear. Our argument...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012925293
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The Impact of Inflation on Budgetary Discipline
Aizenman, Joshua; Hausmann, Ricardo - 2021
This paper investigates budgetary rules for an economy characterized by inflation and volatile relative prices. We view the budgetary process as a limited contingencies contract between the treasury and the ministers. The budgetary process allows a minister, whose realized real budget falls...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013249153