This paper examines the output contributions of capital and labor deployed in information systems (IS) at the firm level during the period 1988-91 throughout the business sector, using two different sources of data on these inputs. Our production function estimates suggest that there are...

Supporters of touch-screen voting claim it is a highly reliable voting technology, while a growing number of critics argue that paperless electronic voting systems are vulnerable to fraud. In this paper we use county-level data on voting technologies in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections...

Using the implementation of the EDGAR system from 1993 to 1996 as a shock to information dissemination technologies, we examine the potential benefits and costs of modern information technologies on the real economy. On the one hand, we document that broader information dissemination leads to a...

Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence that real rate risk premia and...

The best predictor of current investment at the firm level is lagged investment. This lagged-investment effect is empirically more important than the cash-flow and Q effects combined. We show that the specification of investment adjustment costs proposed by Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans...

Optimal investment of firms implies that expected stock returns are tied with the expected marginal benefit of investment divided by the marginal cost of investment. Winners have higher expected growth and expected marginal productivity (two major components of the marginal benefit of...

We propose a Bayesian procedure for exploiting small, possibly long-lag linear predictability in the innovations of a finite order autoregression. We model the innovations as having a log-spectral density that is a continuous mean-zero Gaussian process of order 1/√T. This local embedding makes...

We review the literature on return and cash flow growth predictability form the perspective of the present-value identity. We focus predominantly on recent work. Our emphasis is on U.S. aggregate stock return predictability, but we also discuss evidence from other asset classes and countries

This paper develops a new utility-based monetary aggregate which we label the currency equivalent aggregate. This aggregate equals the stock of currency that would be required for households to obtain the same liquidity services that they get from their entire collection of monetary assets. We...