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We examine austerity in advanced economies since the Great Recession. Austerity shocks are reductions in government … purchases that exceed reduced-form forecasts. Austerity shocks are statistically associated with lower real GDP, lower inflation … advanced economies generates a multiplier consistent with the data. Counterfactuals suggest that eliminating austerity would …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963180
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760232
U.S. labor and total-factor productivity growth slowed prior to the Great Recession. The timing rules out explanations that focus on disruptions during or since the recession, and industry and state data rule out "bubble economy" stories related to housing or finance. The slowdown is located in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013052125
After the Global Financial Crisis a controversial rush to fiscal austerity followed in many countries. Yet research on … the effects of austerity on macroeconomic aggregates was and still is unsettled, mired by the difficulty of identifying … novel approach, we show that austerity is always a drag on growth, and especially so in depressed economies: a one percent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013076565
In this paper I analyze the London Monetary and Economic Conference of 1933, an almost forgotten episode in U.S. monetary history. I study how the Conference shaped dollar policy during the second half of 1933 and early 1934. I use daily data to investigate the way in which the Conference and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012962174
Illiquidity in short-term credit markets during the financial crisis might have severely curtailed the supply of non-bank consumer credit. Using a new data set linking every car sold in the United States to the credit supplier involved in each transaction, we find that the collapse of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012994914
The extraordinary events surrounding the Great Recession have cast a considerable doubt on the traditional sources of macroeconomic instability. In their place, economists have singled out financial and uncertainty shocks as potentially important drivers of economic fluctuations. Empirically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012997363
We examine the first widespread use of capital controls in response to a global or regional financial crisis. In particular, we analyze whether capital controls mitigated capital flight in the 1930s and assess their causal effects on macroeconomic recovery from the Great Depression. We find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013052499
The present paper argues that the correct experiment to evaluate the effects of a fiscal adjustment is the simulation of fiscal plans rather than of individual fiscal shocks. The simulation of the fiscal plans adopted by 16 OECD countries over a 30-year period supports the hypothesis that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013101511
We investigate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidations based upon government spending cuts, transfers cuts and tax hikes. We extend a narrative dataset of fiscal consolidations, with details on over 3500 measures for 16 OECD countries. We show that government spending cuts and cuts in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012956924