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Estimated dynamic stochastic equilibrium (DSGE) models are now widely used for empirical research in macroeconomics as well as for quantitative policy analysis and forecasting at central banks around the world. This paper reviews recent advances in the estimation and evaluation of DSGE models,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013130259
easy to show that it is suboptimal from a Bayesian perspective. Using a stylized representation of a randomized controlled … impediment to the implementation of the ideal Bayesian analysis and a numerical illustration of the potential benefits of holdout …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013073955
We propose a method for solving and estimating linear rational expectations models that exhibit indeterminacy and we provide step-by-step guidelines for implementing this method in the Matlab-based packages Dynare and Gensys. Our method redefines a subset of expectational errors as new...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075856
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models are often solved and estimated under specific assumptions as to whether the exogenous variables are difference or trend stationary. However, even mild departures of the data generating process from these assumptions can severely bias the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013152087
When is it possible for one person to persuade another to change her action? We take a mechanism design approach to this question. Taking preferences and initial beliefs as given, we introduce the notion of a persuasion mechanism: a game between Sender and Receiver defined by an information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013153918
autoregressive fluctuations around a downward sloping deterministic trend function with a break. Our fully Bayesian approach allows …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833111
multiyear clinical trial and regulatory approval process within the course of an outbreak. We apply a Bayesian adaptive patient … path during such outbreaks. When the epidemic is more infectious and fatal, the Bayesian-optimal sample size in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833747
A Bayesian approach is used to investigate a sample's information about a portfolio's degree of inefficiency. With …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774475
This paper proposes a Bayesian method of performance evaluation for investment managers. We begin with a flexible set …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774817
The DeGroot model has emerged as a credible alternative to the standard Bayesian model for studying learning on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012893612