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We develop a nonlinear state-space model that captures the joint dynamics of consumption, dividend growth, and asset … returns. Our model consists of an economy containing a common predictable component for consumption and dividend growth and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013050301
Rare events (RE) and long-run risks (LRR) are complementary elements for understanding asset-pricing patterns, including the average equity premium and the volatility of equity returns. We construct a model with RE (temporary and permanent parts) and LRR (including stochastic volatility) and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013001224
We propose a new framework for pricing assets, derived in part from the traditional consumption-based approach, but which also incorporates two long-standing ideas in psychology: prospect theory, and evidence on how prior outcomes affect risky choice. Consistent with prospect theory, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763762
We empirically decompose the S&P 500's dividend yield into (1) a rational forecast of long-run real dividend growth, (2 …) the subjectively expected risk premium, and (3) residual mispricing attributed to the market's forecast of dividend growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013133237
to obtain a term structure of expected dividend growth rates and a term structure of risk premia, which allows us to … decompose the equity risk premium by maturity. We find that both expected dividend growth rates and risk premia exhibit … substantial variation over time, particularly for short maturities. In addition to predicting dividend growth, equity yields help …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120296
stock market returns. We instrument the actual capital gains and dividend payments with past portfolio weights. Unrealized …% for the top 30% of the wealth distribution. Households’ consumption is significantly more responsive to dividend payouts …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013232918
<script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.1/MathJax.js?config=AM_HTMLorMML-full"></script>In the rare-disasters setting, a key determinant of the equity premium is the size distribution of macroeconomic disasters, gauged by proportionate declines in per capita consumption or GDP. The long-term national-accounts data for up to 36 countries provide a large sample of disaster events of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013009178
We analyze the supply-side disruptions associated with Covid-19 across firms and workers. To do so, we exploit differences in the ability of workers across industries to work remotely using data from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS). We find that sectors in which a higher fraction of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012831839
This paper investigates the effects of increased cash dividend payout, and of quot;forced realizations~ of capital … United States, Great Britain, and Canada suggests that higher dividend tax rates lower consumption. This is consistent with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012762734
We construct a price, dividend, and earnings series for the Industrials sector, the Utilities sector, and the Railroads …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013049370