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We use dynamic panel data models to generate density forecasts for daily Covid-19 infections for a panel of countries/regions. At the core of our model is a specification that assumes that the growth rate of active infections can be represented by autoregressive fluctuations around a downward...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833111
We study the role of global supply chains in the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on GDP growth for 64 countries. We …, "renationalization" of global supply chains does not in general make countries more resilient to pandemic-induced contractions in labor … lockdowns. In fact, trade can insulate a country imposing a stringent lockdown from the pandemic-shock, as its foreign inputs …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833120
We develop a model of pandemic risk management and firm valuation. We introduce aggregate transmission shocks into an … during a pandemic. Valuations would be significantly lower absent mitigation and a high vaccine arrival rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833123
the distribution of UI benefits after the uniform $600 Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC) supplement …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833125
We quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 for emerging markets using a SIR-multisector-small open economy model and calibrating it to Turkey. Domestic infection rates feed into both sectoral supply and sectoral demand shocks. Sectoral demand shocks also incorporate lower external demand...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833730
In the midst of epidemics such as COVID-19, therapeutic candidates are unlikely to be able to complete the usual multiyear clinical trial and regulatory approval process within the course of an outbreak. We apply a Bayesian adaptive patient-centered model—which minimizes the expected harm of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833747
There is growing concern that the COVID-19 pandemic may have severe, adverse effects on the health care sector, a … aspect of this issue by estimating the magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic on use of outpatient health services. We use 2010 … pandemic is associated with about a 67 percent decline in the total number of outpatient visits per provider by the week of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833748
We study the effects of the temporary federal paid sick leave mandate that became effective April 1st, 2020 on ‘social distancing,' as proxied by individuals' physical mobility behavior gleaned from cellular devices. The national paid leave policy was implemented in response to the COVID-19...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834401
In SIR models, infection rates are typically exogenous, whereas individuals adjust their behavior in reality. City-level data across the globe suggest that mobility falls in response to fear, proxied by Google searches. Incorporating experimentally validated measures of social preferences at the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834459
Using real-time register data we document the magnitude, dynamics and socio-economic characteristics of the crisis-induced temporary and permanent layoffs in Norway. We find evidence that the effects of social distancing measures quickly spread to industries that were not directly affected by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834461