evidence for changes in persistence and in volatility of price across three well defined periods. We argue that historically …, the real price of oil has tended to be highly persistent and volatile whenever rapid industrialization in a major world … account for the increased volatility of oil price we observe in these periods …

market in a general-equilibrium model of the world economy. We analyze the impact of the advent of fracking on the volatility …We use a new micro data set that covers all oil fields in the world to estimate a stochastic industry-equilibrium model … of oil prices. Our model predicts a large decline in this volatility …

public policy issues facing the industry: (a) the sustainability of competition and volatility of airline profits, (b …Following a brief review of the U.S. domestic airline industry under regulation (1938-1978), we study the changes that …

areas of India, and that farmers respond more strongly to the forecast where there is more forecast skill and not at all … when there is no skill. We show, using an IV strategy in which the Indian government forecast of monsoon rainfall serves as … estimated. Using the full rainfall distribution and our profit function estimates, we find that Indian farmers on average under …

volatility forecast, coupled with a parametric lognormal-normal mixture distribution implied by the theoretically and empirically … forecasting of daily and lower frequency volatility and return distributions. Most procedures for modeling and forecasting … ARCH or stochastic volatility models, which often perform poorly at intraday frequencies. Use of realized volatility …

inflation process is well described by an unobserved component trend-cycle model with stochastic volatility or, equivalently, an …

reduce taxes on labor income, showing that such a policy could increase world productive capacity while being consistent with …

environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other methods of density forecast combination, such as …