We propose uncertainty shocks as a new shock that drives business cycles. First, we demonstrate that microeconomic … uncertainty is robustly countercyclical, rising sharply during recessions, particularly during the Great Recession of 2007 …-2009. Second, we quantify the impact of time-varying uncertainty on the economy in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model …

A significant source of risk arises from uncertainty concerning future government policy. Government action - - tax …

We develop a new index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) based on newspaper coverage frequency. Several types of …-related economic uncertainty. Our US index spikes near tight presidential elections, Gulf Wars I and II, the 9/11 attacks, the failure … find that policy uncertainty raises stock price volatility and reduces investment and employment in policy …

Building on Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016), I construct a monthly index of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU … a trio of terms pertaining to the economy, uncertainty and policy-related matters. The GEPU Index rises sharply in …

We quantify and study state-level economic policy uncertainty. Tapping digital archives for nearly 3,500 local … newspapers, we construct three monthly indexes for each state: one that captures state and local sources of policy uncertainty … uncertainty much more than the average election. The COVID-19 pandemic drove huge increases in policy uncertainty and unemployment …

model is often inappropriate, since model uncertainty is an important element of policy evaluation. We advocate the use of … model averaging to account for model uncertainty and show how it may be applied to policy evaluation exercises. We …