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We present a model of judgment under uncertainty, in which an agent combines data received from the external world with information retrieved from memory to evaluate a hypothesis. We focus on what comes to mind immediately, as the agent makes quick, intuitive evaluations. Because the automatic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013152441
-interest. There are many possible reasons why. We investigate several of these reasons with a lab-in-the-field experiment in rural …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013106639
class of problems of decision under uncertainty in which the argument for collective choice emerges from the mathematics of … aggregating individual payoffs. Consider decision making when each member of a population has the same objective function, which … depends on an unknown state of nature. If agents knew the state of nature, they would make the same decision. However, they …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013157910
We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to compare point forecasts of GDP growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters. We find that SPF forecasters summarize their underlying distributions in different ways and that their summaries tend...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012761765
Decisions take time, and the time taken to reach a decision is likely to be informative about the cost of more precise …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860435
constructed-choice model for general decision making. The model departs from utility theory and prospect theory in its treatment … context on goals, resources, plans and decision rules. The paper concludes by suggesting some prescriptions for improving … individual decision making with respect to protective measures …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012755476
Parameter learning strongly amplifies the impact of macro shocks on marginal utility when the representative agent has a preference for early resolution of uncertainty. This occurs as rational belief updating generates subjective long-run consumption risks. We consider general equilibrium models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013071899
Home-delivered prescriptions have no delivery charge and lower copayments than prescriptions picked up at a pharmacy. Nevertheless, when home delivery is offered on an opt-in basis, the take-up rate is only 6%. We study a program that makes active choice of either home delivery or pharmacy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012894412
allocations is not rejected in models that allow more than two household members to have agency in decision-making. In contrast … decision-making within complex households.Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858407
-consistent expectations. This implicitly assumes unrealistic cognitive abilities on the part of economic decision makers. The relevant … question, however, is not whether the assumption can be literally correct, but how much it would matter to model decision … problems such as chess or go, in which decision makers look ahead only a finite distance into the future, and use a value …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012917036