Showing 1 - 10 of 2,605
An analysis of the performance of GDP, employment and other labor market variables following the troughs in postwar U.S. business cycles points to much slower recoveries in the three most recent episodes, but does not reveal any significant change over time in the relation between GDP and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013106308
the associations of growth level, growth volatility, shocks, institutions, and macroeconomic fundamentals have changed in … important ways after the crisis. GDP growth across countries has become more dependent on external factors, including global … growth, global oil prices, and global financial volatility. After accounting for the effects global shocks, we find that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012954940
We use more than one century of Argentine and Mexican data to estimate the structural parameters of a small-open-economy real-business-cycle model driven by nonstationary productivity shocks. We find that the RBC model does a poor job at explaining business cycles in emerging countries. We then...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760602
-crisis trend, others stagnate. Recent studies provide empirical support for a link between aggregate growth and plant dynamics … model with heterogeneous firms to study the effect on aggregate short-run growth of policies that distort the process of … birth, growth and death of firms, as well as the reallocation of resources across economic units. Our findings show that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013225158
research on China. Second, we document, through various empirical methods, the robust findings about striking patterns of trend … offers a constructive framework for studying China's modern macroeconomy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013021472
With an estimated New Keynesian model, this paper compares the "Great Recession" of 2007-09 to its two immediate predecessors in 1990-91 and 2001. The model attributes all three downturns to a similar mix of aggregate demand and supply disturbances. The most recent series of adverse shocks...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013137590
We provide empirical evidence on the dynamics effects of tax liability changes in the United States. We distinguish between surprise and anticipated tax changes using a timing-convention. We document that pre-announced but not yet implemented tax cuts give rise to contractions in output,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139130
What shocks account for the business cycle frequency and long run movements of output and prices? This paper addresses this question using the identifying assumption that only supply shocks, such as shocks to technology, oil prices, and labor supply affect output in the long run. Real and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139739
This paper studies the optimal level of discretion in policymaking. We consider a fiscal policy model where the government has time-inconsistent preferences with a present-bias towards public spending. The government chooses a fiscal rule to trade off its desire to commit to not overspend...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013097776
nominal interest rates and inflationary expectations below target). In addition, the recovery was jobless (i.e., output growth … confidence shock. Lack-of-confidence shocks play a central role in generating jobless recoveries, for fundamental shocks, such as … disturbances to the natural rate, are shown to generate recessions featuring recoveries with job growth. The paper considers a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013097777