for the mild effects on inflation and economic activity of the recent increase in the price of oil: (a) good luck (i …

We compare the performance of maximum likelihood (ML) and simulated method of moments (SMM) estimation for dynamic …

In this paper I analyze GMM estimation when the sample is not a random draw from the population of interest. I exploit …

in recent decades can be explained by the success that monetary policy has had in quelling inflation and anchoring … inflation expectations since the 1980s. We also review the experience of the 1960s, the last time inflation expectations became …

This paper asks whether a textbook Phillips curve can explain the behavior of core inflation in the euro area. A … critical feature of the analysis is that we measure core inflation with the weighted median of industry inflation rates, which … is less volatile than the common measure of inflation excluding food and energy prices. We find that fluctuations in core …

This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve … based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve's target, and that labor …-market slack is captured by the level of short-term unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including …

This paper provides an explanation for the run-up of U.S. inflation in the 1960s and 1970s and the sharp disinflation … by low inflation. However, prolonged episodes of high inflation ending with rapid disinflations can occur when … policymakers underestimate both the natural rate of unemployment and the persistence of inflation in the Phillips curve. I estimate …

This paper first outlines the key stylized facts about changes in inflation dynamics in recent years: 1) inflation … persistence has declined, 2) the Phillips curve has flattened, and 3) inflation has become less responsive to other shocks. These … changes in inflation dynamics are interpreted as resulting from an anchoring of inflation expectations as a result of better …