distribution of expected future inflation. We evaluate the adequacy ofquot; those density forecasts using the framework of Diebold … realized inflation including several deficiencies of the forecasts. The probability of a large negative inflationquot; shock is …. Inflation surprises are serially correlated eventually adapt. Expectations of low inflation are associated with reduced …

inflation. This paper fills this research gap by providing a replicable forecasting model that beats a host of other competing …

This paper describes a new data set of the forecasts of output growth, inflation, and unemployment prepared by …

Unexpected inflation devalues nominal government bonds. It must therefore correspond to a decline in expected future … each component via a vector autoregression, in response to inflation, recession, surplus and discount rate shocks. Discount … rates, rather than deficits, account for most inflation variation. Smooth inflation that slowly devalues outstanding long …

activity and inflation as latent variables. We incorporate these latent variables into a factor-augmented vector autoregression … activity and inflation, consistent with previous studies. In contrast to much of the literature, however, we find that central …-bank-determined changes in Chinese interest rates also have substantial impacts on economic activity and inflation, while other measures of …

medium-scale New Keynesian DSGE model, we apply our approach to generate and evaluate recursive forecasts for PCE inflation …, core PCE inflation, the unemployment rate, and housing starts along with predictions for the seven variables that have been …

-statistic has best power. We illustrate our procedures by comparing forecasts of different models for U.S. inflation …