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In this paper we show that temperature is an aggregate risk factor that adversely affects economic growth. Our argument … temperature (i.e., temperature betas) contains sharp information about the cross-country risk premium; countries closer to the … Equator carry a positive temperature risk premium which decreases as one moves farther away from the Equator. The differences …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118834
a key determinant of risk premia at all investment horizons. As the investment horizon increases, transitory risks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012776939
We estimate the risk and expected returns of private equity investments based on the market prices of exchange …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013156423
This paper measures the effects of the risk of war on nine U.S. financial variables using a heteroskedasticity …-based estimation technique. The results indicate that increases in the risk of war cause declines in Treasury yields and equity prices …, a widening of lower-grade corporate spreads, a fall in the dollar, and a rise in oil prices. This war risk factor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210541
bond yields. The result holds even when controlling for the default risk on corporate bonds. We argue that the corporate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760406
We study the predictive power of approximately 2.5 million stock picks submitted by individual users to the "CAPS" website run by the Motley Fool company (www.caps.fool.com). These picks prove to be surprisingly informative about future stock prices. Indeed, a strategy of shorting stocks with a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013008531
geometrically. If market makers are sufficiently risk averse, however, the cross-correlation pattern is inverted. Our results are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013137011
We propose a latent variables approach within a present-value model to estimate the expected returns and expected dividend growth rates of the aggregate stock market. This approach aggregates information contained in the history of price-dividend ratios and dividend growth rates to predict...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139284
Human beings want to believe that good outcomes in the future are more likely, but also want to make good decisions that increase average outcomes in the future. We consider a general equilibrium model with complete markets and show that when investors hold beliefs that optimally balance these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012777581
The expected time- and risk-adjusted cumulative return on any asset equals one at all horizons. Nonetheless, I show … that a typical asset's realized time- and risk-adjusted cumulative return tends to zero almost surely. As a corollary, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139893