Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 756
Cover Image
Macroeconomic Derivatives : An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty, and Risk
Gürkaynak, Refet S. - 2010
well calibrated. Finally we assess the role of risk, finding little evidence that risk-aversion drives a wedge between …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012761783
Cover Image
Monetary Science, Fiscal Alchemy
Leeper, Eric M. - 2010
Monetary policy decisions tend to be based on systematic analysis of alternative policy choices and their associated macroeconomic impacts: this is science. Fiscal policy choices, in contrast, spring from unsystematic speculation, grounded more in politics than economics: this is alchemy. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136545
Cover Image
Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity
Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús - 2011
We study the effects of changes in uncertainty about future fiscal policy on aggregate economic activity. Fiscal deficits and public debt have risen sharply in the wake of the financial crisis. While these developments make fiscal consolidation inevitable, there is considerable uncertainty about...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013121070
Cover Image
Predictable Returns and Asset Allocation : Should a Skeptical Investor Time the Market?
Wachter, Jessica A. - 2007
Are excess returns predictable and if so, what does this mean for investors? Previous literature has tended toward two polar viewpoints: that predictability is useful only if the statistical evidence for it is incontrovertible, or that predictability should affect portfolio choice, even if the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012776789
Cover Image
Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters
Engelberg, Joseph - 2010
We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to compare point forecasts of GDP growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters. We find that SPF forecasters summarize their underlying distributions in different ways and that their summaries tend...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012761765
Cover Image
Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
Wolfers, Justin - 2006
are the degree of risk aversion and the distribution of beliefs, and we provide some novel data on the distribution of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012780189
Cover Image
Uncertainty as Commitment
Nosal, Jaromir B. - 2013
Time-inconsistency of no-bailout policies can create incentives for banks to take excessive risks and generate endogenous crises when the government cannot commit. However, at the outbreak of financial problems, usually the government is uncertain about their nature, and hence it may delay...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013087435
Cover Image
Disasters Risk and Business Cycles
Gourio, Francois - 2010
shocks to aggregate uncertainty, I introduce a small, time-varying risk of economic disaster in a standard real business … risk of disaster does not affect the path of macroeconomic aggregates - a "separation theorem" between macroeconomic … variation in risk premia over time, are observationally equivalent to preference shocks. An increase in the perceived …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013150731
Cover Image
Uncertainty in Environmental Economics
Pindyck, Robert S. - 2007
In a world of certainty, the design of environmental policy is relatively straightforward, and boils down to maximizing the present value of the flow of social benefits minus costs. But the real world is one of considerable uncertainty -- over the physical and ecological impact of pollution,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012778137
Cover Image
Heterogeneous Households Under Uncertainty
Veronesi, Pietro - 2019
I characterize a dynamic economy under general distributions of households' risk tolerance, endowments, and beliefs … consumption-share increases; (b) the wealth-share of high risk-tolerant households increases; (c) richer households' wealth … risk sharing. Higher uncertainty increases stock prices, risk premiums, volatility, wealth inequality and the dispersion of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012894994