This paper examines what we have learned and how we should change our thinking about monetary policy strategy in the aftermath of the 2007-2009 financial crisis. It starts with a discussion of where the science of monetary policy was before the crisis and how central banks viewed monetary policy...

This paper examines what transformed a significant, but relatively mild, financial disruption into a full-fledged financial crisis. It discusses why, although the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy was a key trigger for the global financial crisis, three other events were at least as important: the AIG...

This paper reviews Japanese monetary policy over the last two decades with an emphasis on the experience of deflation from the mid-1990s. The paper is quite critical of the conduct of monetary policy, particularly from 1998 to 2003. The Bank of Japan's rhetoric was not helpful in fighting...

In this paper we examine how target ranges work in the context of a Barro-Gordon (1983) type model, in which the time-inconsistency problem stems from political pressures from the government. We show that target ranges turn out to be an excellent way to cope with the time-inconsistency problem,...

This paper analyzes the Fisher effect in Australia. Initial testing indicates that both interest rates and inflation contain unit roots. Furthermore, there are indications that the variables have non-standard error processes. To overcome problems associated with this and derive the correct small...

We examine the potential policy role of monetary aggregates by attempting to use them as effectively as possible in the analysis of empirical relationships. We consider three possible roles: as information variables, as indicators of policy actions and as instruments in a policy rule. These...

This paper is an application of efficient markets theory to analyze empirically the relationship of money supply growth and long-term interest rates. This approach has the advantage over earlier research on this subject in that it imposes a theoretical structure on this relationship that allows...

This paper conducts tests of the rationality of both inflation and short-term interest rate forecasts in the bond market. These tests are developed with the theory of efficient markets and make use of security price data to infer information on market expectations

This paper provides an asymmetric information framework for understanding the nature of financial crises. It provides the following precise definition of a financial crisis: A financial crisis is a disruption to financial markets in which adverse selection and moral hazard problems become much...

This paper looks at how advances in information and telecommunications technologies have been changing the structure of the financial system by lowering transaction costs and reducing asymmetric information. Households and smaller businesses can now raise funds in securities markets as financial...