We develop a model of pandemic risk management and firm valuation. We introduce aggregate transmission shocks into an … epidemic model and link valuations to infections via an asset-pricing framework with vaccines. Infections lower earnings growth … during a pandemic. Valuations would be significantly lower absent mitigation and a high vaccine arrival rate …

We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the US and UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied … emerge. First, all indicators show huge uncertainty jumps in reaction to the pandemic and its economic fallout. Indeed, most …

in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic but only gradual ones---the great inflation of the 70s took more than 10 years … Spanish flu pandemic---which the estimated model endogenously recalls and uses to interpret inflation around the COVID-19 …

per year in the business sector. Yet the pandemic appears to have created a resurgence in productivity growth with a 4 … in both the pre-pandemic and pandemic-era U.S. economy. The key insight is that in their panicked reaction to the … industries provides new perspectives for 2006-22 and particularly for the nine pandemic quarters of 2020-22. Positive pandemic …

the global pandemic and war news reported in the New York Times to capture the positive effects of the end of World War I … pandemic in March 1920. We also find that the flu had a significant, but varied impact on nine NYSE sectors. The empirical …

changes in the future disease risk. I argue these facts may be explained by a model in which perceived risk of disease is …

This paper analyzes the economic impact of the pandemic, providing insights into the consequences of alternative … equilibrium approaches may not provide the appropriate framework for analyzing the pandemic: individuals know that they don’t know …

We analyze the role of international trade and health coordination in times of a pandemic by building a two … prevent infection coming from abroad. The efficient, i.e., coordinated, risk-sharing arrangement dynamically adjusts both … policies robustly feature inefficiently high tariffs that peak with the pandemic in the foreign economy. This distorts terms of …

fallen during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Hourly smart meter data from Texas reveals how daily routines … changed during the pandemic, with usage during weekdays closely resembling those of weekends. The 16% residential increase …

correlations in risk. We discuss how the strategy changes in a pandemic environment with repeated testing, rapid local infection … spread, and highly uncertain risk. First, repeated testing mechanically lowers prevalence at the time of the next test. This … with intra-group risk correlation, which is expected in natural test groupings based on proximity. Third, because optimal …