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This paper develops a stochastic equilibrium model of an open economy incorporating speculation in the forward exchange … and forward exchange marketbut exacerbates the effect of foreign disturbances. Speculation may dampen or augment the … interest elasticity of bond demand. The second issue that the model addresses is the role of the forward market in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013247678
In this paper, we present new evidence on the profitability and statistical significance of technical trading rules in the foreign exchange market. We utilize a new data base, currency futures contracts for the period 1976-1990, and we implement a new testing procedure based on bootstrap...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224334
mandate, market participants have the option to trade currency futures on existing futures markets which standardize …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013103054
, we provide a general explanation of this turbulence in terms of the modern "asset market theory" to exchange …-rate determination. This theory emphasizes that exchange rates, like the prices of other assets determined in organized markets, are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013232171
We present theory and evidence that challenges the view that forward premia contain little information regarding … subsequent spot rate movements. Using weekly dollar-mark and dollar sterling data, we find that spot and forward exchange rates … relationships predicted by a simple theoretical framework and that a basis for this cointegrating space is the vector of forward …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763403
Trigger strategist-s may be defined as act-ors in asset markets who buy or sell when the price reaches a predetermined level ; t-hey include participants in portfolio insurance schemes in equity markets and central banks who intervene to defend an exchange rate target zone. This paper presents...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763462
This paper reconciles the persistence of aggregate real exchange rates with the faster adjustment of international relative prices in microeconomic data. Panel estimation of an error correction model using a micro data set uncovers new stylized facts regarding this puzzle. First, adjustment to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013149574
by policy responses. This paper presents a theory-based measure of capital flow pressures, a new Exchange Market Pressure …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012928304
We document evidence consistent with retail day traders in the Forex market attributing random success to their own skill and, as a consequence, increasing risk taking. Although past performance does not predict future success for these traders, traders increase trade sizes, trade size...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012994895
The purpose of this paper is to characterize the changes in risk premium in the 1980s. A five-variable vector autoregressive model (VAR) is constructed to calculate a risk premium series in the foreign exchange market. The risk premium series is volatile and time-varying. The hypothesis of no...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774551