We explore a view of the crisis as a shock to investor sentiment that led to the collapse of a bubble or pyramid scheme …

first oil shock (1973), but accelerated again afterward, reaching levels above 100 percent on average between 1980 and 1994 …

. Specifically, we use sign restrictions to identify a government revenue shock as well as a government spending shock, while … controlling for a generic business cycle shock and a monetary policy shock. We explicitly allow for the possibility of … announcement effects, i.e., that a current fiscal policy shock changes fiscal policy variables in the future, but not at present …

-fiscal shocks. The role of expected primary surpluses in supporting innovations to debt depends on the nature of the shock. For some …