This paper studies the role of credit in the business cycle, with a focus on private credit overhang. Based on a study …; and for both types of recession, more credit-intensive expansions tend to be followed by deeper recessions and slower … controls and their lags. Then we study how past credit accumulation impacts the behavior of not only output but also other key …

aggregate data. Changes in household credit limits explain 40% of the differential rise and fall of employment across states … gradual, credit shocks greatly slowed the recovery …

What are the stylized facts that characterize the dynamics of credit booms and the associated fluctuations in macro … credit booms to data for 61 emerging and industrial countries over the 1960-2010 period. We identify 70 credit boom events …, half of them in each group of countries. Event analysis shows a systematic relationship between credit booms and a boom …

This paper is a theoretical study into how credit constraints interact with aggregate economic activity over the … not only factors of production, but they also serve as collateral for loans. Borrowers' credit limits are affected by the … prices of the collateralized assets. And at the same time, these prices are affected by the size of the credit limits. The …

We present a model of credit cycles arising from diagnostic expectations – a belief formation mechanism based on … nest rational expectations as a special case. In our model of credit cycles, credit spreads are excessively volatile, over …-react to news, and are subject to predictable reversals. These dynamics can account for several features of credit cycles and …

official beginning of the recession in the fourth quarter of 2007. Similarly, counties with the highest reliance on credit card … statistical model shows that household leverage growth and dependence on credit card borrowing as of 2006 explain a large fraction …

first examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty on aggregate bank credit growth. Then we analyze commercial bank … macroeconomic controls, economic policy uncertainty affected bank level credit growth, and (ii) whether there is variation in the … on bank credit growth. Since this impact varies meaningfully with some bank characteristics – particularly the overall …

Credit booms are not rare and usually precede financial crises. However, some end in a crisis (bad booms) while others … do not (good booms). We document that credit booms start with an increase in productivity, which subsequently falls much … faster during bad booms. We develop a model in which crises happen when credit markets change to an information regime with …