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Implications of Stochastic Transmission Rates for Managing Pandemic Risks
Hong, Harrison G. - 2020
We develop a model of pandemic risk management and firm valuation. We introduce aggregate transmission shocks into an … epidemic model and link valuations to infections via an asset-pricing framework with vaccines. Infections lower earnings growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833123
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The Macroeconomics of a Pandemic : A Minimalist Model
Céspedes, Luis Felipe - 2020
We build a minimalist model of the macroeconomics of a pandemic, with two essential components. The first is productivity-related: if the virus forces firms to shed labor beyond a certain threshold, productivity suffers. The second component is a credit market imperfection: because lenders...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833117
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The Inclusive Cost of Pandemic Influenza Risk
Fan, Victoria - 2016
risk, a value that GNI fails to capture. In this paper we use findings from that literature to generate an estimate of … annual basis using reasonable (although highly uncertain) estimates of the annual probabilities of pandemics in two bands of … inclusive cost to be $570 billion per year or 0.7% of global income (range: 0.4-1.0%).2. For moderately severe pandemics about …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012995516
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Post Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Theory
Farmer, Roger E. A. - 2017
disparate traditions. I make the case for unity between Post-Keynesian and General Equilibrium Theory under the banner of Post …-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Theory …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012964394
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Economic vs. Epidemiological Approaches to Measuring the Human Capital Impacts of Infectious Disease Elimination
Chuard, Caroline; Schwandt, Hannes; Becker, Alexander; … - 2022
A rich economic literature has examined the human capital impacts of disease-eliminating health interventions, such as the rollout of new vaccines. This literature is based on reduced-form approaches which exploit proxies for disease burden, such as mortality, instead of actual infection counts,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014081338
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The Macroeconomics of Testing and Quarantining
Eichenbaum, Martin - 2020
with quarantines, testing dramatically reduces the economic costs of the epidemic. This reduction is particularly dramatic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834472
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Panel Forecasts of Country-Level Covid-19 Infections
Liu, Laura - 2020
We use dynamic panel data models to generate density forecasts for daily Covid-19 infections for a panel of countries/regions. At the core of our model is a specification that assumes that the growth rate of active infections can be represented by autoregressive fluctuations around a downward...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833111
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A Note on Long-Run Persistence of Public Health Outcomes in Pandemics
Lin, Zhixian - 2020
response and mortality outcomes should be better than in 1918-20. We ask whether mortality from historical pandemics has any …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834466
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Estimating the Fraction of Unreported Infections in Epidemics with a Known Epicenter : An Application to Covid-19
Hortaçsu, Ali - 2020
We develop an analytically tractable method to estimate the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter and estimate the number of unreported COVID-19 infections in the US during the first half of March 2020. Our method utilizes the covariation in initial reported...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012835558
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Economic Policy Incentives to Preserve Lives and Livelihoods
Chang, Roberto - 2020
the feedback loops between medical and economic factors we develop a minimal economic model of pandemics. In the model, as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836417