estimate the size of the COVID-19-related unemployment shock to be between 2 and 5 times larger than the typical unemployment … shock, depending on race and gender, resulting in a significant increase in mortality rates and drop in life expectancy. We … also predict that the shock will disproportionately affect African-Americans and women, over a short horizon, while the …

Did adoption of the gold standard exacerbate or diminish macroeconomic volatility? Supporters thought so, critics … thought not, and theory offers ambiguous messages. A hard exchange-rate regime such as the gold standard might limit monetary … shocks if it ties the hands of policy makers. But any decision to forsake exchange-rate flexibility might compromise shock …

devaluation. Using a new high-frequency data set on commodity-price movements from the classical gold standard era, we then show …

restrictions on the responses of a subset of the endogenous variables to a particular structural shock (sign-restricted SVARs). To …

augmented to include empirical measures of consumer or business confidence. We also estimate non-linear VAR specifications to …

This paper studies the small estimated effects of monetary policy shocks from standard VAR's versus the large effects … are consistent across approaches and most likely medium. Alternative monetary policy shock measures from estimated Taylor …

preference or more generally a demand shock. More recently two other explanations have been advocated: surprise changes in …

Do shocks to government spending raise or lower consumption and real wages? Standard VAR identification approaches show … difference in the approaches is the timing. Both professional forecasts and the narrative approach shocks Granger-cause the VAR … shocks, implying that the VAR shocks are missing the timing of the news. Simulations from a standard neoclassical model in …

Using panel structural VAR analysis and quarterly data from four industrialized countries, we document that an increase … government spending shock. In addition, the deep-habit model predicts that in response to an anticipated increase in government …