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It is well known from anecdotal, survey and econometric evidence that the relationship between the exchange rate and macro fundamentals is highly unstable. This could be explained when structural parameters are known and very volatile, neither of which seems plausible. Instead we argue that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013152622
When Roosevelt abandoned the gold standard in April 1933, he converted what had been effectively real government debt into nominal government debt to open the door to unbacked fiscal expansion. We argue that he followed a state-contingent fiscal rule that ran nominal-debt-financed primary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012890617
In this paper we investigate the sources of the important shifts in the volatility of U.S. macroeconomic variables in the postwar period. To this end, we propose the estimation of DSGE models allowing for time variation in the volatility of the structural innovations. We apply our estimation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012767428
What is good for big business need not generally advance a country%u2019s overall economy. Big business turnover correlates with rising income, productivity, and (in high income countries) faster capital accumulation; consistent with Schumpeter%u2019s (1912) creative destruction and recent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012754160
While output declined in virtually all transition economies in the initial years, the speed and extent of the recovery that followed has varied widely across these countries. The contrast between the more and less successful transitions, the latter largely in the former Soviet Union, raises many...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014156715
To American and European economists in 1945, the countries of Asia were unpromising candidates for high economic growth. In 1950 even the most prosperous of these countries had a per capita income less than 25 percent of that of the United States. Between the mid-1960s and the end of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227236
, a level that China should achieve by or soon after 2015. Among our more provocative findings is that growth slowdowns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013127765
take this classic question to the data by measuring the spillover e¤ects of China's productivity growth. Our framework … the spillover e¤ects of China's productivity growth are small causing the real incomes of China's trading partners to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013130268
human capital to China's economic growth. The results indicate that human capital plays a much more important role in China … enrollment in China increased nearly fivefold between 1997 and 2007) while growth rates of GDP are little changed over the period … that there have been decreased in the efficiency of inputs usage in China or worsened misallocation of physical and human …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135239
best, particularly in comparison with that of China. Comparing these countries and reviewing the literature, we conclude … gained from trade, and by some measures, more so than China. We sketch out a theory in which developing countries can grow … continuing reforms, Chinese growth is likely to slow down sharply, perhaps leaving China at a level less than Mexico's real GDP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135399