This paper examines old and new evidence on the predictive performance of asset prices for inflation and real output … prices predict either inflation or output growth in some countries in some periods. Which series predicts what, when and …

We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to compare point forecasts of GDP growth and inflation with the …

inflation and activity. If policy makers are guided by the welfare criterion of the representative household, globalization … forces also lead monetary policy to be more aggressive with regard to inflation fluctuations but, at the same time, more …

-price changes, and an index of equiproportional changes in all inflation rates, that we label quot;purequot; inflation. The paper … price changes to fundamental economic shocks. We use the estimates of the pure inflation and aggregate relative …-price components to answer two questions. First, what share of the variability of inflation is associated with each component, and how …

The New-Keynesian aggregate supply derives from micro-foundations an inflation-dynamics model very much like the … tradition in the monetary literature. Inflation is primarily affected by: (i) economic slack; (ii) expectations; (iii) supply … shocks; and (iv) inflation persistence. This paper extends the New Keynesian aggregate supply relationship to include also …

) a persistent and hump-shaped response of inflation to a monetary policy shock, (ii) a large and persistent response of … shock, (v) non-inertial responses of inflation to non-monetary shocks, and (vi) a negative unconditional autocorrelation of … the first difference of inflation that is consistent with the data. A medium-scale model relying on backward indexation of …