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This paper examines the likely growth of U.S. GDP in the decade beginning in 2010. I analyze the two components of the rise in GDP over this ten year period: (1) the recovery from the substantially depressed level of economic activity at the start of the decade; and (2) the rise in potential GDP that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013148647
This paper examines inflation dynamics in the United States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession …. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960-2007 are used to predict inflation over 2008-2010: inflation … by theories of costly price adjustment: we measure core inflation with the median CPI inflation rate, and we allow the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125171
We use an agent-based computational approach to show how inflation can worsen macroeconomic performance by disrupting … the mechanism of exchange in a decentralized market economy. We find that increasing the trend rate of inflation above 3 … significant negative effect of trend inflation on output even when such an effect exists in reality …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013103807
Not in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy, once we account for the fact that most of the high-frequency volatility in wages appears to be due to noise, rather than to variation in workers' preferences or market power
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013093417
) a persistent and hump-shaped response of inflation to a monetary policy shock, (ii) a large and persistent response of … shock, (v) non-inertial responses of inflation to non-monetary shocks, and (vi) a negative unconditional autocorrelation of … the first difference of inflation that is consistent with the data. A medium-scale model relying on backward indexation of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013014650
This paper describes a new data set of the forecasts of output growth, inflation, and unemployment prepared by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013151648
inflation. In the 2000s, and at least until the end of 2007, even larger increases in the price of oil were associated with much … milder movements in output and inflation. Using a structural VAR approach Blanchard and Gali (2007a) argued that this has … reflected in large part a change in the causal relation from the price of oil to output and inflation. In order to shed light on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013155110
rates, and the shift in the response of the term structure of interest rates to inflation and output. Although the theory …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012775473
We analyze the effect of inflation on the average output of monopolistic firms facing a small fixed cost of changing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012776697
a broad cross-section of countries inflation volatility has fallen markedly while output variability has either fallen … changes to these two factors. Our technique involves estimating movements toward an inflation and output variability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013221984