This paper provides an empirical investigation of the medium-term determinants of current accounts for a large sample of industrial and developing countries. The analysis is based on a structural approach that highlights the roles of the fundamental macroeconomic determinants of saving and...

Permanent shocks such as trade liberalizations are hard to discuss in a standard dynamic Hechscher-Ohlin model due to potential interest rate over-determination. We make three contributions. First, we introduce an endogenous discount factor which solves the problem of interest rate...

There are a number of worrisome features of the U.S. current account deficit. In particular, its size and persistence, the extent to which it is financing consumption as opposed to investment, and the reliance on debt inflows raise concerns about the likelihood of a sharp adjustment. We examine...

This paper re-examines the implications, risks, and attendant policies surrounding global rebalancing of current accounts through the lens of a dynamic, multi-region model of the global economy. In the baseline scenario, world macroeconomic imbalances of the early 2000s can be attributed to a...

Most analyses of the macroeconomic adjustment required to correct global imbalances ignore net exports of new varieties of goods and services and do not account for firms' entry in the product market. In this paper we revisit the macroeconomics of trade adjustment in the context of the classic...

We study the evolution of the U.S. current account in a two-country dynamic stochastic endowment model in which a single non-state contingent bond is the only internationally traded asset. The paper focuses on the world `saving glut' as the primary cause of continual deterioration in the current...

We study determinants and consequences of sharp reductions in current account" imbalances (reversals) in low- and middle-income countries. We try to answer two questions:" first, what triggers reversals? Second, what factors explain how costly reversals are? We find" that both domestic...

This paper provides a formal analysis of the current account balance in a dynamic model with optimizing agents. Two analytical ideas are stressed. First, an economy's current account balance depends as much on fixture economic trends as on the current economic environment. A shift in fiscal...

This paper develops a dynamic framework in which macroeconomic liberalization and stabilization measures of the type recently seen in Latin America can be studied. The model is sufficiently general to cover both polar cases of a closed capital account and free private capital mobility, so the...