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This paper examines the extent to which permanent terms-of-trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings. The first part uses a simple three-period model to show that, if households expect to face binding borrowing constraints in bad states of nature, savings rates will respond...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013244885
thought not, and theory offers ambiguous messages. A hard exchange-rate regime such as the gold standard might limit monetary … shocks if it ties the hands of policy makers. But any decision to forsake exchange-rate flexibility might compromise shock … absorption in a world of real shocks and nominal stickiness. A simple model shows how a lack of flexibility can be discerned in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012761895
reduce taxes on labor income, showing that such a policy could increase world productive capacity while being consistent with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759537
This paper investigates the impact of change in the terms of trade on the economic performance of a small economy. Both the effects of unanticipated shocks and changes in the mean and variance of the probability distribution generating these disturbances are discussed. In all cases, the key...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760071
The latest boom in commodity prices fueled concerns about fiscal policies in commodity-exporting countries, with many claiming that it triggered loose fiscal policy and left no funds for a rainy day. This paper examines the links between fiscal policy and terms-of-trade fluctuations using a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013147365
The paper uses an intertemporal perfect-foresight optimizing model to analyze the effect of transitory terms-of-trade shocks on a small open . economy's current-account and utility time profiles. An adverse terms-of-trade shift known to be temporary induces the economy to run down its stock of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013233469
This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output–the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013030068
In this paper I offer an alternative identification assumption that allows one to test for changing patterns regarding the international propagation of shocks when endogenous variables, omitted variables, and heteroskedasticity are present in the data. Using this methodology, I demonstrate that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013248543
This paper examines the desirability of wage indexation in an open economy subject to economic disturbances which change the terms of trade and raise the prices of imported goods. Two indexation rules are considered, the traditional form of indexation to the consumer price index and indexation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013228637
We provide a theoretical interpretation of two features of international data: the countercyclical movements in net exports and the tendency for the trade balance to be negatively correlated with current and future movements in the terms of trade, but positively correlated with past movements....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013248695