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of surprise, is found to increase the deals and price volatility in the immediately after the announcement. In addition … components have return impacts also have impacts on deals and volatility. The announcement itself, in addition to the magnitude …, some other items have no return impacts but deals and volatility impacts. These facts are consistent with a view that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013152611
We compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of univariate homoskedastic, GARCH, autoregressive and nonparametric models for conditional variances, using five bilateral weekly exchange rates for the dollar, 1973-1989. For a one week horizon, GARCH models tend to make slightly more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013225431
Intraday movements in the yen/dollar rate are examined over the 1980-86 period using opening and closing quotes in the New York and Tokyo markets. The results indicate that random-walk behavior is violated about half of the time in various subsamples. However, the economic significance of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227002
In 1981 real interest rates in the United States increased spectacularly, and the dollar appreciated in real terms by about 20 percent. Since the end of 1981, long-term real interest rates have remained in the range of 5-10 percent, with nominal long rates above short rates. The dollar...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013228754
three-country model which combines an asset market determination of exchange rates with a price sector emphasizing wage … indexation behavior and price competitiveness between countries. The three countries consist of two members of the union as well … two member countries in the absence of the union. The importance of another factor, domestic price responsiveness, is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013229142
stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic policy uncertainty, twitter chatter about economic uncertainty, subjective … January 2020) in two-year implied volatility on the S&P 500 and subjective uncertainty around year-ahead sales for UK firms to …We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the US and UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012830476
choices matter for output volatility and the medium-term level of inflation. Greater monetary independence is associated with … lower output volatility while greater exchange rate stability implies greater output volatility, which can be mitigated if a … inflation rate. We find that trilemma policy configurations and external finances affect output volatility through the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013145228
With many emerging market currencies tied to the U.S. dollar either implicitly or explicitly, movements in the exchange values of the currencies of major countries have the potential to influence the competitive position of many developing countries. According to some analysts, establishing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013230967
appreciation. Nevertheless, the uncertainty in gold returns is concentrated in the price-change component. The model can explain …From 1836 to 2011, the average real rate of price change for gold in the United States is 1.1% per year and the … gold's real rate of price change with consumption and GDP growth rates are small and statistically insignificantly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013087443
There is growing concern that the COVID-19 pandemic may have severe, adverse effects on the health care sector, a sector of the economy that historically has been somewhat shielded from the business cycle. In this paper, we study one aspect of this issue by estimating the magnitude of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833748