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Bayesian Persuasion
Kamenica, Emir - 2009
When is it possible for one person to persuade another to change her action? We take a mechanism design approach to this question. Taking preferences and initial beliefs as given, we introduce the notion of a persuasion mechanism: a game between Sender and Receiver defined by an information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013153918
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Rules and Commitment in Communication : An Experimental Analysis
Frechette, Guillaume R. - 2019
We study the role of commitment in communication and its interactions with rules, which determine whether or not …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860443
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Communication and Bargaining Breakdown : An Empirical Analysis
Backus, matthew; Blake, Thomas; Pettus, Jett; Tadelis, … - 2022
information. Can a bargaining environment that facilitates or restricts communication alleviate these costs? We exploit a unique … platform introduced unstructured communication allowing buyers and sellers on the desktop version of the site, but not the …, using text analysis, that the dynamics are consistent with repeat players learning how to use communication in bargaining …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014091401
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Signalling, Incumbency Advantage, and Optimal Reelection Thresholds
Caselli, Francesco - 2012
types to voters. We identify two novel implications of models in which signalling incentives are important. First, because …. Second, voters can exploit the signalling behavior of politicians by precommitting to a higher threshold for signals received …. Raising the threshold discourages signalling effort by low quality politicians but encourages effort by high quality …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110929
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DSGE Model-Based Forecasting of Non-Modelled Variables
Schorfheide, Frank - 2010
This paper develops and illustrates a simple method to generate a DSGE model-based forecast for variables that do not explicitly appear in the model (non-core variables). We use auxiliary regressions that resemble measurement equations in a dynamic factor model to link the non-core variables to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012757579
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The Econometrics of DSGE Models
Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús - 2010
In this paper, I review the literature on the formulation and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models with a special emphasis on Bayesian methods. First, I discuss the evolution of DSGE models over the last couple of decades. Second, I explain why the profession has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012757950
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Forming Priors for DSGE Models (and How it Affects the Assessment of Nominal Rigidities)
Del Negro, Marco - 2010
The paper discusses prior elicitation for the parameters of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, and provides a method for constructing prior distributions for a subset of these parameters from beliefs about the moments of the endogenous variables. The empirical application...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759604
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Predictive Regressions
Stambaugh, Robert F. - 2010
When a rate of return is regressed on a lagged stochastic regressor, such as a dividend yield, the regression disturbance is correlated with the regressor's innovation. The OLS estimator's finite-sample properties, derived here, can depart substantially from the standard regression setting....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763765
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Can Standard Preferences Explain the Prices of Out of the Money S&P 500 Put Options
Benzoni, Luca - 2009
Prior to the stock market crash of 1987, Black-Scholes implied volatilities of Samp;P 500 index options were relatively constant across moneyness. Since the crash, however, deep out-of-the-money Samp;P 500 put options have become %u2018expensive%u2019 relative to the Black-Scholes benchmark....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012767454
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Bayesian and Frequentist Inference in Partially Identified Models
Moon, Hyungsik Roger - 2015
A large sample approximation of the posterior distribution of partially identified structural parameters is derived for models that can be indexed by a finite-dimensional reduced form parameter vector. It is used to analyze the differences between frequentist confidence sets and Bayesian...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012749798