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The Predictive Content of Energy Futures : An Update on Petroleum, Natural Gas, Heating Oil and Gasoline
Chinn, Menzie David - 2014
This paper examines the relationship between spot and futures prices for energy commodities (crude oil, gasoline, heating oil markets and natural gas). In particular, we examine whether futures prices are (1) an unbiased and/or (2) accurate predictor of subsequent spot prices. We find that while...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012752621
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Historical Oil Shocks
Hamilton, James D. - 2014
post-World-War-II oil shocks reviewed include the Suez Crisis of 1956-57, the OPEC oil embargo of 1973-1974, the Iranian …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013068515
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Lags, Costs, and Shocks : An Equilibrium Model of the Oil Industry
Bornstein, Gideon - 2017
We use a new micro data set that covers all oil fields in the world to estimate a stochastic industry-equilibrium model … market in a general-equilibrium model of the world economy. We analyze the impact of the advent of fracking on the volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012955791
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Understanding Crude Oil Prices
Hamilton, James D. - 2010
This paper examines the factors responsible for changes in crude oil prices. The paper reviews the statistical behavior of oil prices, relates these to the predictions of theory, and looks in detail at key features of petroleum demand and supply. Topics discussed include the role of commodity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012758150
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World Equilibrium with Oil Price Increases : An Intertemporal Analysis
Marion, Nancy Peregrim; Svensson, Lars E. O. - 2021
world rate of interest(intertemporal terms of trade effects) and, for rigid wages, changes in employment. Thus Industria … gains from the intertemporal terms of trade effect if it is a net borrower and the world rate of interest falls. Precise … conditions for whether the world rate of interest falls or rises are given.We also show that Industria may gain from subsidizing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224216
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Pandemic, War, Inflation : Oil Markets at a Crossroads?
Baumeister, Christiane - 2023
The COVID-19 pandemic as well as the Russian invasion of Ukraine have had profound effects on the global energy landscape, with some of the longer-lasting effects still unfolding. This paper discusses how these events have reshaped the supply side of the global oil market by focusing on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014346319
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Dynamic Prediction Pools : An Investigation of Financial Frictions and Forecasting Performance
Del Negro, Marco - 2014
environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other methods of density forecast combination, such as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045643
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Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for 25 Currencies
Chinn, Menzie David; Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2021
We investigate the properties of exchange rate forecasts with a data set encompassing a broad cross section of currencies. The key finding is that expectations appear to be biased in our sample. This result is robust to the possibility of random measurement error in the survey measures....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013226080
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Inflation Targeting and Private Sector Forecasts
Cecchetti, Stephen G. - 2013
cause them to overreact to the signals from the central bank, leading the economy to be too sensitive to common forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013095553
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The Simple Economics of Commodity Price Speculation
Knittel, Christopher R. - 2013
The price of crude oil in the U.S. never exceeded $40 per barrel until mid-2004. By 2006 it reached$70, and in July 2008 it peaked at $145. By late 2008 it had plummeted to about $30 before increasingto $110 in 2011. Are speculators at least partly to blame for these sharp price changes? We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013083410