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In this paper, we re-examine the stock market of the 1920s and 1930s for evidence of a bubble, a 'fad' or 'herding' behavior by studying individual stock returns. One story often advanced for the boom of 1928 and 1929 is that it was driven by the entry into the market of largely uninformed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763470
The paper presents new empirical results that elucidate the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half of the paper is an updated study of the exchange rate expectations held by market participants, as reflected in responses to surveys, and contains the following conclusions. First,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763525
and Porter (1981) and Shiller (1981a). It appears that neither small sample bias, rational bubbles nor some standard …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013141042
We provide a model for why high beta assets are more prone to speculative overpricing than low beta ones. When investors disagree about the common factor of cash-flows, high beta assets are more sensitive to this macro-disagreement and experience a greater divergence-of-opinion about their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013097774
individuals, to explain bubbles, crises, and endogenous risk in financial markets …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013084737
This paper reports empirical tests for the existence of rational bubbles in stock prices. The analysis focuses on a … extraneous variables. The tests are based on the theoretical result that, if rational bubbles exist, time series obtained by …. Applications of the time domain tests to simulated nonstationary time series that would be implied by rational bubbles indicates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774692
not valid in general: as soon as bubbles affect interest rates, the fundamental value of a stock depends on whether or not …-bubble price. Under conditions made precise below, there can therefore be price decreasing bubbles, and an asset can be quot;undervalued.quot …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763028
type of rational bubble that depends exclusively on dividends. We call such bubbles quot;intrinsicquot; bubbles because … most popular examples of rational bubbles, intrinsic bubbles provide an empirically plausible account of deviations from …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012767840
"conventional" view on the effects of monetary policy on bubbles, as well as with the predictions of bubbleless models. We also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013056857
We analyze the relationship between asset price bubbles and systemic risk, using bank-level data covering almost thirty … years. Systemic risk of banks rises already during a bubble’s build-up phase, and even more so during its bust. The increase …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224874