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methodology is sensitive to the modeling of household demography. Existing estimates of CPI bias do not account for the changing … effect of household size on budget shares, and this can lead to omitted variable bias. Since the effect of household size on … changing effect of household size is accounted for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012772364
An increase in the household debt to GDP ratio in the medium run predicts lower subsequent GDP growth, higher … supply hypothesis,” we show that low mortgage spreads predict an increase in the household debt to GDP ratio and a decline in … subsequent GDP growth when used as an instrument. The negative relation between the change in household debt to GDP and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013014671
Using administrative credit report records and data collected through several special household surveys we analyze … changes in household debt and savings during the 2007 recession. We find that while different segments of the population were … higher saving rate appears to reflect a considerable decline in household debt, with households paying down mortgage debt in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125918
We provide methods of decomposing the variance of world national incomes into components in such a way as to indicate the most important risk-sharing opportunities, and, therefore, the most important missing international risk markets to establish. One method uses a total variance reduction...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224942
This paper investigates the role of income-driven differences in consumption patterns in explaining and projecting energy demand and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. We develop and estimate a general-equilibrium model with non-homothetic preferences across a large set of countries and sectors, and trace embodied...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012912519
frame-34 countries with GDP data starting between 1870 and 1896-estimation with country fixed effects is more appropriate … "iron-law" rate of 2%. In the post-1960s panel, estimation without country fixed effects supports the modernization …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013101830
GDP growth is often measured poorly for countries and rarely measured at all for cities or subnational regions. We propose a readily available proxy: satellite data on lights at night. We develop a statistical framework that uses lights growth to augment existing income growth measures, under...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013151806
Concerns about the quality of China's official GDP statistics have been a perennial question in understanding its economic dynamics. We use data on satellite-recorded nighttime lights as an independent benchmark for comparing various published indicators of the state of the Chinese economy....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012958590
We propose and apply a new approach for analyzing the effects of fiscal policy using vector autoregressions. Specifically, we use sign restrictions to identify a government revenue shock as well as a government spending shock, while controlling for a generic business cycle shock and a monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012758030
I use microeconomic estimates of the effect of health on individual outcomes to construct macroeconomic estimates of the proximate effect of health on GDP per capita. I employ avariety of methods to construct estimates of the return to health, which I combine with cross-country and historical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012762437