We develop and implement a new method for maximum likelihood estimation in closed-form of stochastic volatility models … unobservable volatility state, to an approximate likelihood procedure where the volatility state is replaced by the implied … volatility of a short dated at-the-money option. We find that the approximation results in a negligible loss of accuracy. We …

imposed in CIR-style models and models in which the state variables are the stochastic long-run mean and volatility of r …

States, the United Kingdom, and Germany using the Campbell-Shiller (1991) regressions and a vector …-problem effects is largely consistent with term structure data from the U.S., U.K., and Germany …

econometric performance of regime-switching models for interest rate data from the US, Germany and the UK. There is strong … shocks on economic aggregates. Moreover, the implied volatility and drift functions are rich enough to resemble those …

Market participants' forecasts of future exchange rate volatility can be recovered from option contracts on foreign … currencies. Such implicit volatility forecasts for four currencies are used to test rational expectations jointly with the … version of market rationality: the market can correctly forecast the direction of the change in exchange rate volatility. This …

forecasting of daily and lower frequency volatility and return distributions. Most procedures for modeling and forecasting … ARCH or stochastic volatility models, which often perform poorly at intraday frequencies. Use of realized volatility … variation, we formally develop the links between the conditional covariancematrix and the concept of realized volatility. Next …