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External Validity in a Stochastic World
Rosenzweig, Mark R. - 2016
We examine the generalizability of internally valid estimates of causal effects in a fixed population over time when that population is subject to aggregate shocks. This temporal external validity is shown to depend upon the distribution of the aggregate shocks and the interaction between these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012986284
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What Do the Vars Mean? : Measuring the Output Effects of Monetary Policy
Cochrane, John H. - 2021
What are the relative effects of anticipated vs. unanticipated monetary policy? I examine the effect of this identifying assumption on VAR estimates of the output response to money, assuming that anticipated monetary policy can have some effect on output results in much shorter and smaller...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013217605
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Big Banks and Macroeconomic Outcomes : Theory and Cross-Country Evidence of Granularity
Bremus, Franziska - 2013
Does the mere presence of big banks affect macroeconomic outcomes? In this paper, we develop a theory of granularity (Gabaix, 2011) for the banking sector, introducing Bertrand competition and heterogeneous banks charging variable markups. Using this framework, we show conditions under which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081202
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Firm Performance and the Volatility of Worker Earnings
Juhn, Chinhui - 2017
Using linked employer-employee data for the U.S., we examine whether shocks to firm revenues are transmitted to the earnings of continuing employees. While full insurance is rejected, the elasticity of worker earnings with respect to persistent shocks in firm revenues is small and consistent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012964398
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What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?
Mountford, Andrew - 2010
. Specifically, we use sign restrictions to identify a government revenue shock as well as a government spending shock, while … controlling for a generic business cycle shock and a monetary policy shock. We explicitly allow for the possibility of … announcement effects, i.e., that a current fiscal policy shock changes fiscal policy variables in the future, but not at present …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012758030
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Trade, Pollution and Mortality in China
Bombardini, Matilde - 2016
products: while two prefectures may experience the same shock in dollar terms, the one specializing in the dirty sector has a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012979768
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Early Health Shocks, Intrahousehold Resource Allocation, and Child Outcomes
Yi, Junjian - 2014
An open question in the literature is whether families compensate or reinforce the impact of child health shocks. Discussions usually focus on one dimension of child investment. This paper examines multiple dimensions using household survey data on Chinese child twins whose average age is 11. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013039768
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Monetary Policy in a Data-Rich Environment
Bernanke, Ben; Boivin, Jean - 2021
Most empirical analyses of monetary policy have been confined to frameworks in which the Federal Reserve is implicitly assumed to exploit only a limited amount of information, despite the fact that the Fed actively monitors literally thousands of economic time series. This article explores the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013226548
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Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis
Stock, James H.; Watson, Mark W. - 2022
econometric issues are addressed including estimation of the number of dynamic factors and tests for the factor restrictions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013322868
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The Macroeconomic Impact of Financial and Uncertainty Shocks
Caldara, Dario - 2016
The extraordinary events surrounding the Great Recession have cast a considerable doubt on the traditional sources of macroeconomic instability. In their place, economists have singled out financial and uncertainty shocks as potentially important drivers of economic fluctuations. Empirically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012997363