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Decision Fatigue and Heuristic Analyst Forecasts
Hirshleifer, David A. - 2018
firms and often issue several forecasts in a single day. We find that forecast accuracy declines over the course of a day as … closely with the consensus forecast, by self-herding (i.e., reissuing their own previous outstanding forecasts), and by … issuing a rounded forecast. Finally, we find that the stock market understands these effects and discounts for analyst …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012926415
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Market Reactions to Tangible and Intangible Information
Daniel, Kent D. - 2010
We decompose stock returns into components attributable to tangible and intangible information. A firm's tangible return is the component of its return attributable to fundamental accounting-performance information, and its intangible return is the component which is orthogonal to this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012762814
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Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook : An Update
Campbell, John Y. - 2010
The use of price earnings ratios and dividend-price ratios as forecasting variables for the stock market is examined using aggregate annual US data 1871 to 2000 and aggregate quarterly data for twelve countries since 1970. Various simple efficient-markets models of financial markets imply that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763169
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Forecasting Stock Market Returns : The Sum of the Parts is More than the Whole
Ferreira, Miguel A. - 2009
We propose forecasting separately the three components of stock market returns: dividend yield, earnings growth, and price-earnings ratio growth. We obtain out-of-sample R-square coefficients (relative to the historical mean) of nearly 1.6% with monthly data and 16.7% with yearly data using the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012765583
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Changing Times, Changing Values : A Historical Analysis of Sectors within the Us Stock Market 1872-2013
Bunn, Oliver - 2014
We construct a price, dividend, and earnings series for the Industrials sector, the Utilities sector, and the Railroads sector from the beginning of the 1870s until the beginning of the year 2013 from primary sources. To infer about mispricings in the sector markets over more than a century, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013049370
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Four Centuries of Return Predictability
Golez, Benjamin - 2015
/U.K. (1629-1812), U.K. (1813-1870) and U.S. (1871-2015). We show that dividend yields are stationary and consistently forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013031015
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An Elaborated Global Climate Policy Architecture : Specific Formulas and Emission Targets for All Countries in All Decades
Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2014
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012750866
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The Potential Global and Developing Country Impacts of Alternative Emission Cuts and Accompanying Mechanisms for the Post Copenhagen Process
Tian, Huifang - 2010
for reductions by China, India, Russia, Brazil, US, EU, Japan and a residual Row. Given the damage estimates we use all …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013142090
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A Forensic Examination of China's National Accounts
Chen, Wei - 2019
China's national accounts are based on data collected by local governments. However, since local governments are … rewarded for meeting growth and investment targets, they have an incentive to skew local statistics. China's National Bureau of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012872298
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Social Trust and Differential Reactions of Local and Foreign Investors to Public News
Jia, Chunxin - 2015
This paper uses the segmented dual-class shares issued by several dozen Chinese firms---A shares to local Chinese investors and H shares to foreign investors---to compare reactions of local and foreign investors to the same public news. We find that local investors react more strongly to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024501