Showing 1 - 10 of 5,693
This paper develops a decision-theoretic approach to policy analysis. We argue that policy evaluation should be conducted on the basis of two factors: the policymaker's preferences, and the conditional distribution of the outcomes of interest given a policy and available information. From this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013226952
data on stock market levels and volatility as proxies for the first and second moments of business conditions. We then use …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013062729
find that policy uncertainty raises stock price volatility and reduces investment and employment in policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013003270
shocks using methods from the news shocks literature, the analysis finds that innovations in realized stock market volatility … economy. Moreover, investors have historically paid large premia to hedge shocks to realized but not implied volatility. A … model in which fundamental shocks are skewed left can match those facts. Aggregate volatility matters, but it is the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012948093
relation has roots in fundamentals as higher market risk predicts greater idiosyncratic earnings volatility and as firm …From 1963 through 2015, idiosyncratic risk (IR) is high when market risk (MR) is high. We show that the positive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012985580
their empirical counterparts. Our findings suggest that time-varying disaster risk and the many types of uncertainty shocks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012987142
uncertainty. The results dictate the role of uncertainty and volatility in structural models and we show they are consistent with … a simple extension of the long-run risk model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224964
We quantify and study state-level economic policy uncertainty. Tapping digital archives for nearly 3,500 local newspapers, we construct three monthly indexes for each state: one that captures state and local sources of policy uncertainty (EPU-S), one that captures national and international...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013299328
We selectively survey, unify and extend the literature on realized volatility of financial asset returns. Rather than … focusing exclusively on characterizing the properties of realized volatility, we progress by examining economically interesting … functions of realized volatility, namely realized betas for equity portfolios, relating them both to their underlying realized …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224993
We reconsider the empirical links between volatility and growth between 1970 and 2007. There is a strong and … their economies. The amount of volatility driven by these external factors is highly correlated, cross-sectionally, with the … overall amount of volatility in GDP growth. There is also a strong correlation between a country's average growth rate and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013151388