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-coupon bond options and dynamics of the forward rate curve, under both the actual and risk-neutral measure, in terms of a finite …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012761268
important lenders' portfolio behavior can be in bringing about the adjustment of interest rates which Fisher's theory associates … with expected inflation. Given the importance of this adjustment for questions of both monetary theory and monetary policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763220
This paper develops behavioral relationships explaining investors' demands for long-term bonds, using three alternative hypotheses about investors' expectations of future bond prices (yields). The results, based on U.S. 'data for six major categories of bond market investors, consistently...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763222
At the zero lower bound, the central bank's inability to offset shocks endogenously generates volatility. In this setting, an increase in uncertainty about future shocks causes significant contractions in the economy and may lead to non-existence of an equilibrium. The form of the monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013002240
Most affine models of the term structure with stochastic volatility (SV) predict that the variance of the short rate is simultaneously a linear combination of yields and the quadratic variation of the spot rate. However, we find empirically that the A1(3) SV model generates a time series for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783833
This paper proposes a dynamic risk-based model capable of jointly explaining the term structure of interest rates …, returns on the aggregate market and the risk and return characteristics of value and growth stocks. Both the term structure of … are priced, but shocks to the price of risk are not. Given reasonable assumptions for dividends and inflation, we show …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012757917
This paper develops two models, one involving risk neutrality and the other risk aversion, which suggest that inflation … evidence supports the hypothesis that inflation uncertainty affects interest rates. Interpreted in terms of the risk neutral … positive impact on the expected real rate. If the results are interpreted in terms of the risk averse model, inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013310253
monetary base and the price level at these times differed from the post-World War I1 experience in ways predicted by the theory …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139987
We assume that the instantaneous riskless rate reverts towards a central tendency which in turn, is changing stochastically over time. As a result, current short-term rates are notquot; sufficient to predict future short-term rates movements, as would be the case if the centralquot; tendency was...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774919
future interest rates differentials, expectations of future exchange rates, and risk premia. While much previous empirical … depreciation at a horizon of a year and longer and an increase in the risk premium, consistent with the argument that it also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012778233