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Simple regression tests that have power against the alternatives that. asset prices and expected future asset returns are excessively volatile are developed and performed for the foreign exchange and stock markets. These tests have a number of advantages over alternative, variance hounds...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012786275
Large long-run swings in the United States stock market over the past century correspond to swings in estimates of fundamental values calculated by using a long moving average of past dividend growth to forecast future growth rates. Such a procedure would have been reasonable if investors were...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012787482
We study whether exchange traded funds (ETFs)--an asset of increasing importance--impact the volatility of their … stocks owned by ETFs exhibit significantly higher intraday and daily volatility. We estimate that an increase of one standard … deviation in ETF ownership is associated with an increase of 16% in daily stock volatility. The driving channel appears to be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013054871
institutions predicts higher volatility and greater noise in stock prices as well as greater fragility in times of crisis. When …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012992142
Three mutually uncorrelated economic disturbances that we measure empirically explain 85% of the quarterly variation in real stock market wealth since 1952. A model is employed to interpret these disturbances in terms of three latent primitive shocks. In the short run, shocks that affect the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013060683
We investigate a consumption-based present value relation that is a function of future dividend growth. Using data on aggregate consumption and measures of the dividend payments from aggregate wealth, we show that changing forecasts of dividend growth make an important contribution to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012750749
.S. Forest Service timber auctions, we document a set of systematic effects of auction format: sealed bid auctions attract more … value auction model with endogenous participation can account for these qualitative effects of auction format. We estimate … an assessment of bidder competitiveness, which has important consequences for auction choice …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012765569
I show that frequent batch auctions for stocks have the potential to reduce the severity of stock price crashes when they occur. For a given sequence of orders from a continuous electronic limit order book market, matching orders using one second apart batch auctions results in nearly the same...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012861734
and auction formats without requiring instruments or estimation of a complex structural model. We demonstrate the approach …We introduce a simple and robust approach to answering two key questions in empirical auction analysis: discriminating … between models of entry and quantifying the revenue gains from improving auction design. The approach builds on Bulow and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013046604
This paper proposes an estimation method for a repeated auction game under the presence of capacity contraints. The … estimation strategy is computationally simple as it does not require solving for the equilibrium of the game. It uses a two stage … estimation method to repeated highway construction procurement auctions in the state of California between May 1996 and May 1999 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013217920