--they are not observed at the time that the forecast is made--but can nonetheless improve forecasting accuracy by reducing … standard examples of forecasting excess bond and equity returns. We find substantial improvements in out-of-sample forecast …

forecasting movements in short-term interest rates. For brief forecast intervals, however, ex ante changes in long-term rates are …

firms and often issue several forecasts in a single day. We find that forecast accuracy declines over the course of a day as … closely with the consensus forecast, by self-herding (i.e., reissuing their own previous outstanding forecasts), and by … issuing a rounded forecast. Finally, we find that the stock market understands these effects and discounts for analyst …

environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other methods of density forecast combination, such as …

models when measured by root mean square errors, especially over long-run forecast horizons. The model is shown to be capable …