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Tests of Excess Forecast Volatility in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets
Froot, Kenneth - 2004
Simple regression tests that have power against the alternatives that. asset prices and expected future asset returns are excessively volatile are developed and performed for the foreign exchange and stock markets. These tests have a number of advantages over alternative, variance hounds...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012786275
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Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets
King, Mervyn - 2008
with volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774536
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Forecasting Crashes : Trading Volume, Past Returns and Conditional Skewness in Stock Prices
Chen, Joseph - 2010
This paper is an investigation into the determinants of asymmetries in stock returns. We develop a series of cross-sectional regression specifications which attempt to forecast skewness in the daily returns of individual stocks. Negative skewness is most pronounced in stocks that have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763325
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Why Does the Stock Market Fluctuate?
Barsky, Robert - 2002
Large long-run swings in the United States stock market over the past century correspond to swings in estimates of fundamental values calculated by using a long moving average of past dividend growth to forecast future growth rates. Such a procedure would have been reasonable if investors were...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012787482
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Do Etfs Increase Volatility?
Ben-David, Itzhak - 2014
We study whether exchange traded funds (ETFs)--an asset of increasing importance--impact the volatility of their … stocks owned by ETFs exhibit significantly higher intraday and daily volatility. We estimate that an increase of one standard … deviation in ETF ownership is associated with an increase of 16% in daily stock volatility. The driving channel appears to be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013054871
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The Granular Nature of Large Institutional Investors
Ben-David, Itzhak - 2016
institutions predicts higher volatility and greater noise in stock prices as well as greater fragility in times of crisis. When …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012992142
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Origins of Stock Market Fluctuations
Greenwald, Daniel - 2014
Three mutually uncorrelated economic disturbances that we measure empirically explain 85% of the quarterly variation in real stock market wealth since 1952. A model is employed to interpret these disturbances in terms of three latent primitive shocks. In the short run, shocks that affect the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013060683
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Expected Returns and Expected Dividend Growth
Lettau, Martin - 2015
We investigate a consumption-based present value relation that is a function of future dividend growth. Using data on aggregate consumption and measures of the dividend payments from aggregate wealth, we show that changing forecasts of dividend growth make an important contribution to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012750749
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Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models
Ait-Sahalia, Yacine - 2009
We develop and implement a new method for maximum likelihood estimation in closed-form of stochastic volatility models … unobservable volatility state, to an approximate likelihood procedure where the volatility state is replaced by the implied … volatility of a short dated at-the-money option. We find that the approximation results in a negligible loss of accuracy. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012767654
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A Relationship between Regression Tests and Volatility Tests of Market Ncy
Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2010
Volatility tests are an alternative to regression tests for evaluating the joint null hypothesis of market efficiency … taken to be. By considering tests based on conditional volatility bounds, we show that if the alternative is that one could … conditional volatility tests.If the application is to spot and forward markets, then the most powerful conditional volatility test …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013141210