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We develop a new approach to dealing with real options problems with uncertain maturity. This type of situation is typical for Ramp;D investments and mine or oil exploration projects. These types of projects are characterized by significant on-going investment costs until completion. Since time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760295
We study a competitive credit market in which lenders with partial knowledge of loan repayment use one of three decision criteria - maximization of expected utility, maximin, or minimax regret - to make lending decisions. Lenders allocate endowments between loans and a safe asset, while...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013233223
This paper examines the risk aspects of an investment-based defined contribution Social Security plan. We focus on the … risk after the plan is fully phased in. Individuals deposit a fraction of wages to a Personal Retirement Account (PRA … cushion' that protects the individual from the risk of an unacceptably low level of benefits. For example, PRA deposits of 6 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014138416
The real options framework has been used extensively to analyze the timing of investment under uncertainty. While standard real options models assume that agents possess a constant rate of time preference, there is substantial evidence that agents are very impatient about choices in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013226097
Time-inconsistency of no-bailout policies can create incentives for banks to take excessive risks and generate endogenous crises when the government cannot commit. However, at the outbreak of financial problems, usually the government is uncertain about their nature, and hence it may delay...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013087435
shocks to aggregate uncertainty, I introduce a small, time-varying risk of economic disaster in a standard real business … risk of disaster does not affect the path of macroeconomic aggregates - a "separation theorem" between macroeconomic … variation in risk premia over time, are observationally equivalent to preference shocks. An increase in the perceived …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013150731
In a world of certainty, the design of environmental policy is relatively straightforward, and boils down to maximizing the present value of the flow of social benefits minus costs. But the real world is one of considerable uncertainty -- over the physical and ecological impact of pollution,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012778137
I characterize a dynamic economy under general distributions of households' risk tolerance, endowments, and beliefs … consumption-share increases; (b) the wealth-share of high risk-tolerant households increases; (c) richer households' wealth … display a higher CAPM beta; and (d) households' portfolios change qualitatively. A log-utility investor for instance borrows …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012894994
explain a set of behavioral anomalies identified across four distinct domains of decision-making: choice under risk, choice … risk and ambiguity, belief updating, and survey expectations. Our framework makes predictions that we test using exogenous …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858403
We develop an integrated theory of investment, seasoned equity offerings (SEOs), liquidation, and corporate savings …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013044990