A sleepy consensus has emerged that U.S. GNP data are uninformative as to whether trend is better described as deterministic or stochastic. Although the distinction is not critical in some contexts, it is important for point forecasting, because the two models imply very different long-run...

Estimates of the natural or full employment level of real GNP have usually been obtained by statistical detrending procedures which assume independence between trend and cycle. This paper presents an alternative approach which says that the natural level should be measured in the context of a...

It has been suggested that existing estimates of the long-run impact of a surprise move in income may have a substantial upward bias due to the presence of a trend break in post war U.S. GNP data. This paper shows that the statistical evidence does not warrant abandoning the no trend null...

This paper studies the nature of the errors in preliminary GNP data,It first documents that these errors are large. For example, suppose theprelimimary estimate indicates that real GNP did not change over therecent quarter; then one can be only 80 percent confident that the finalestimate (annual...

A more powerful version of the ADF test and a test that has trend stationarity as the null are applied to U.S. GNP. Simulated critical values generated from plausible trend and difference stationary models are used in order to minimize possible finite sample biases. The discriminatory power of...

We use the revised estimates of U.S. GNP constructed by Christina Romer (1989) to assess the time-series properties of U.S. output per capita over the past century. We reject at conventional significance levels the null that output is a random walk in favor of the alternative that output is a...

International trade policy analysis has tended to focus on the production side of general equilibrium, with policies such as a tariff or carbon tax affecting international and internal income distributions through a Heckscher-Ohlin nexus of factor intensities and factor endowments. Here I move...

The relative performance of China and India is compared using two different methods and they provide a very different picture of their relative performance. We compare the average absolute values of indictors for the decade of the 1980s, 1990s and the 2000s. We use indicators such as the current...

In this paper we try to understand whether national accounts GDP per capita or survey mean income or consumption better proxy for true income per capita. We propose a data-driven method to assess the relative quality of GDP per capita versus survey means by comparing the evolution of each series...

This paper evaluates the nature, relative incidence and drivers of software piracy. In contrast to prior studies, we analyze data that allows us to measure piracy for a specific product - Windows 7 - which was associated with a significant level of private sector investment. Using anonymized...