Showing 1 - 10 of 2,895
Interconnections between banking crises and fiscal crises have a long history. We document the long-run evolution from classic banking panics towards modern banking crises where financial guarantees are associated with crisis resolution. Recent crises feature a feedback loop between bank...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012997361
We present a simple model of sovereign debt crises in which a country chooses its optimal mix of short and long-term bonds subject to standard contracting frictions: the country cannot commit to repay its debts nor to a specific path of future debt issues, and contracts cannot be made state...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013031214
Despite a formal ‘no-bailout clause’, we estimate significant net present value transfers from the European Union to … differences across countries. We characterize bailout size and likelihood as a function of the economic fundamentals (economic … ‘Northern view’ (transfers weaken fiscal discipline). While a stronger no-bailout commitment reduces risk-shifting, it may not …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014095819
We show that financial sector bailouts and sovereign credit risk are intimately linked. A bailout benefits the economy …-financial sector to fund the bailout may be inefficient since it weakens its incentive to invest, decreasing growth. Instead, the … sovereign may choose to fund the bailout by diluting existing government bondholders, resulting in a deterioration of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013123694
This paper studies debt fragility and the sharing of the resulting strategic uncertainty through ex post bailouts. Default arises in equilibrium because of both fundamental shocks and beliefs. The probability of default depends on borrowing rates and, in equilibrium, on the beliefs of lenders...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013100683
We provide a comprehensive account of the dynamics of eurozone countries from 2000 to 2012. We analyze private leverage, fiscal policy, labor costs and interest rates and we propose a strategy to separate the impact of credit cycles, excessive government spending, and sudden stops. We then ask...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045645
We use a network model of credit risk to measure market expectations of the potential spillovers from a sovereign default. Specifically, we develop an empirical model, based on the recent theoretical literature on contagion in financial networks, and estimate it with data on sovereign credit...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045650
In 2007, countries in the euro periphery were enjoying stable growth, low deficits, and low spreads. Then the financial crisis erupted and pushed them into deep recessions, raising their deficits and debt levels. By 2010, they were facing severe debt problems. Spreads increased and,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013072346
We propose a continuous time model of nominal debt and investigate the role of inflation credibility in the potential for self-fulfilling debt crises. Inflation is costly, but reduces the real value of outstanding debt without the full punishment of default. With high inflation credibility,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013074648
We develop a multicountry model in which default in one country triggers default in other countries. Countries are linked to one another by borrowing from and renegotiating with common lenders with concave payoffs. A foreign default increases incentives to default at home because it makes new...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013074284