Showing 1 - 10 of 1,517
the associations of growth level, growth volatility, shocks, institutions, and macroeconomic fundamentals have changed in … growth, global oil prices, and global financial volatility. After accounting for the effects global shocks, we find that … attainment, and lack of political polarization reduce the volatility of economic growth. Countries cope with shocks better in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012954940
This paper links business cycle volatility to barriers on international mobility of goods and capital. Theory predicts … that capital market integration should lower consumption volatility while raising investment volatility, if most shocks are … volatility. We test these ideas using a unique panel data set which includes indicators of barriers to trade in both goods and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014074148
This paper analyzes the macroeconomic adjustment from the crisis in East Asia in a broad international prospective. The stylized pattern from the previous 160 currency crisis episodes over the period from 1970 to 1995 shows a V-type adjustment of real GDP growth in the years prior to and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227193
Paths into the Asian Crisis of 1997-98 and the recent global financial crisis were similar, but the roads out could not be more different. Common wisdom has it that on impact Asia endured fiscal austerity imposed by the IMF whereas the IMF recommended stimulus in the case of the advanced nations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013060259
We develop a novel measure of volatility pass-through to assess international propagation of output volatility shocks … to macroeconomic aggregates, equity prices, and currencies. An increase in country's output volatility is associated with … output volatility increases consumption volatility by 0.5%) and it increases to 70% for shocks originating in smaller …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012907745
A number of studies have identifed patterns of positive correlation of returns, or comovement, among different traded securities. We distinguish three views of such comovement. The traditional 'fundamentals' view explains the comovement of securities through positive correlations in the rational...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012787252
The volatility of economic activity in most G7 economies has moderated over the past forty years. Also, despite large … the exception of Japan, the widespread reduction in volatility is in large part associated with a reduction in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013311849
We explore the consequences of safe asset scarcity on aggregate demand in a stylized IS-LM/Mundell Fleming environment. Acute safe asset scarcity forces the economy into a “safety trap” recession. In the open economy, safe asset scarcity spreads from one country to the other via capital...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012997884
A growing literature shows that credit indicators forecast aggregate real outcomes. While researchers have proposed various explanations, the economic mechanism behind these results remains an open question. In this paper, we show that a simple, frictionless, model explains empirical findings...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012949416
We propose a novel identification scheme for a non-technology business cycle shock, that we label "sentiment." This is a shock orthogonal to identified surprise and news TFP shocks that maximizes the short-run forecast error variance of an expectational variable, alternatively a GDP forecast or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013026790