the sum of the dividend yield on stocks plus some weighted average of expected future growth rates in dividends. We …

The predictability of the market return and dividend growth is addressed in an equilibrium model with two regimes. A … state variable that drives the conditional means of the aggregate consumption and dividend growth rates follows different … by the price-dividend ratio with R2 11.7% if the probability of being in the first regime exceeds 50%; and dividend …

We investigate a consumption-based present value relation that is a function of future dividend growth. Using data on … aggregate consumption and measures of the dividend payments from aggregate wealth, we show that changing forecasts of dividend … growth make an important contribution to fluctuations in the U.S. stock market, despite the failure of the dividend …

dividend yield, the earnings yield and the short rate. The predictability regression is suggested by a present value model with … dividend yield predictability is not robust to our increased sample period, does not survive finite sample corrections and does …

The aggregate dividend payout ratio forecasts aggregate excess returns on both stocks and corporate bonds in post …

/U.K. (1629-1812), U.K. (1813-1870) and U.S. (1871-2015). We show that dividend yields are stationary and consistently forecast … business cycle, with expected returns increasing in recessions. We also find that, except for the period after 1945, dividend … yields predict dividend growth rates …