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This paper examines the extent to which permanent terms-of-trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings … in bad states of nature, savings rates will respond asymmetrically to favorable movements in the permanent component of … standard determinants of private savings. The results, based on panel data for non-oil commodity exporters of sub …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013244885
The latest boom in commodity prices fueled concerns about fiscal policies in commodity-exporting countries, with many claiming that it triggered loose fiscal policy and left no funds for a rainy day. This paper examines the links between fiscal policy and terms-of-trade fluctuations using a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013147365
We analyze the way in which Latin American countries have adjusted to commodity terms of trade (CTOT) shocks in the 1970-2007 period. Specifically, we investigate the degree to which the active management of international reserves and exchange rates impacted the transmission of international...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013117207
: the reciprocal of the terms of trade. Cast this way, a change in the terms of trade acts as a productivity shock. Or does …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012776937
identifies two major price shock episodes before the recent mining-led boom and bust. It assesses their relative magnitude, their …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012757921
We develop a five-region version (Canada, a group of oil exporting countries, the United States, emerging Asia and Japan plus the euro area) of the Global Economy Model (GEM) encompassing production and trade of crude oil, and use it to study the international transmission mechanism of shocks...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759537
This paper investigates the impact of change in the terms of trade on the economic performance of a small economy. Both the effects of unanticipated shocks and changes in the mean and variance of the probability distribution generating these disturbances are discussed. In all cases, the key...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760071
This paper investigates the international transmission of productivity shocks in a sample of five G7 countries. For each country, using long-run restrictions, we identify shocks that increase permanently domestic labor productivity in manufacturing (our measure of tradables) relative to an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760681
shocks if it ties the hands of policy makers. But any decision to forsake exchange-rate flexibility might compromise shock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012761895
According to conventional wisdom, terms of trade shocks represent a major source of business cycles in emerging and poor countries. This view is largely based on the analysis of calibrated business-cycle models. We argue that the view that emerges from empirical SVAR models is strikingly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013021464