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Alesina, Alberto F. - 2016

We investigate how criminal organizations strategically use violence to influence elections in order to get captured politicians elected. The model offers novel testable implications about the use of pre-electoral violence under different types of electoral systems and different degrees of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996383

Partisan Conflict and Private Investment

Azzimonti, Marina - 2015

American politics have been characterized by a high degree of partisan conflict in recent years. Combined with a … this end, I construct a novel high- frequency indicator of partisan conflict. The partisan conflict index (PCI) uses a … may help explain the slow recovery observed since the 2007 recession ended. Partisan conflict is also associated with …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013021015

Partisan Cycles in Congressional Elections and the Macroeconomy

Alesina, Alberto F. - 2011

The post-war United States exhibits two rather strong politico-economic regularities. The political regularity is that the party of the President has always lost votes in aid-term Congressional elections, relative to its Congressional vote in the previous elections; the economic regularity is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013124600

A Theory of Political and Economic Cycles

Ales, Laurence - 2012

We develop a theoretical framework in which political and economic cycles are jointly determined. These cycles are driven by three political economy frictions: policymakers are non-benevolent, they cannot commit to policies, and they have private information about the tightness of the government...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013100994

Political Credit Cycles : The Case of the Euro Zone

Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús - 2013

We study the mechanisms through which the adoption of the Euro delayed, rather than advanced, economic reforms in the Euro zone periphery and led to the deterioration of important institutions in these countries. We show that the abandonment of the reform process and the institutional...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013084731

Political Cycles and Stock Returns

Pastor, Lubos - 2017

We develop a model of political cycles driven by time-varying risk aversion. Agents choose to work in the public or private sector and to vote Democrat or Republican. In equilibrium, when risk aversion is high, agents elect Democrats—the party promising more redistribution. The model predicts...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012962718

Populists at the Polls : Economic Factors in the 1896 Presidential Election

Eichengreen, Barry - 2017

The 1896 presidential election between William Jennings Bryan and William McKinley has gained new salience in the wake of the 2016 contest. We provide the first systematic analysis of voting patterns in 1896, combining county-level returns with economic, financial, demographic and climatological...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012945612

Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles

Rogoff, Kenneth - 2010

Prior to elections, governments (at all levels) frequently undertake a consumption binge. Taxes are cut, transfers are raised, and government spending is distorted towards highly visible items. The quot;political business cyclequot; (better be thought of as quot;the political budget cyclequot;)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760226

Political Budget Cycles : Evidence from Italian Cities

Alesina, Alberto F. - 2014

The introduction of a new real estate taxes in Italy in 2011 generated a natural experiment, which is useful to test political budget cycles, i.e. the strategic choice of fiscal variables in relation to elections. We do find substantial evidence of political budget cycles, with municipalities...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045647

Endogenous Election Timings and Political Business Cycles in Japan

Ito, Takatoshi - 2021

This paper constructs a theoretical model of political business cycles in a Parliamentary system and tests predictions and hypotheses of a theoretical model against the post-war Japanese data. Unlike in a presidential system, the timing of a general election is an endogenous policy variable in a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013218913

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