This paper studies the value of broad commodity price indexes as predictors of consumer price inflation in the G-7 … prices and the conditions under which, in general, one would expect commodity prices to be a leading indicator of inflation … inflation. We find that commodity and consumer prices are not co-integrated; the hypothesis that there is a reliable long …

This paper examines the relationships between movements in primary commodity prices and changes in inflation in the … be correlated with the general inflation rate. Non-monetary shocks generally weaken these relationships, but such … relatively few differences across countries. Three main tendencies may be cited. First, low inflation in industrial countries has …