We investigate whether a model with a time-varying probability of economic disaster can explain the pricing of …

shocks to aggregate uncertainty, I introduce a small, time-varying risk of economic disaster in a standard real business … cycle model. The paper establishes two simple theoretical results: first, when the probability of disaster is constant, the … risk of disaster does not affect the path of macroeconomic aggregates - a "separation theorem" between macroeconomic …

After laying dormant for more than two decades, the rare disaster framework has emerged as a leading contender to … disaster risk that provide explanations for the equity premium puzzle, the volatility puzzle, return predictability and other …

the mean and volatility of equity returns. Our model assumes a small risk of a rare disaster that is calibrated based on … the international data on large consumption declines. We allow the risk of this rare disaster to be stochastic, which … specifications for the stochastic rare disaster probability and show that the data favor a multifrequency process. Finally, we show …

pre-disaster trend, and do not recover within twenty years. Both rich and poor countries exhibit this response, with … suppression of annual growth rates spread across the fifteen years following disaster, generating large and significant cumulative … continuous exposure to disaster. Linking these results to projections of future cyclone activity, we estimate that under …