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This paper examines the economic environments in which past U.S. stock market booms occurred as a first step toward understanding how asset price booms come about and whether monetary policy should be used to defuse booms. We identify several episodes of sustained rapid rise in equity prices in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013127756
individuals, to explain bubbles, crises, and endogenous risk in financial markets …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013084737
Standard tests find that no bubbles are present in the stock price data for the last one hundred years. In contrast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012787479
We analyze the relationship between asset price bubbles and systemic risk, using bank-level data covering almost thirty … years. Systemic risk of banks rises already during a bubble’s build-up phase, and even more so during its bust. The increase …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224874
An iconic model with high leverage and overvalued collateral assets is used to illustrate the amplification mechanism driving asset prices to 'overshoot' equilibrium when an asset bubble bursts--threatening widespread insolvency and what Richard Koo calls a 'balance sheet recession'. Besides...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013145248
We study crashes using data from 101 global stock markets from 1692 to 2015. Extremely large, annual stock market declines are typically followed by positive returns. This is not true for smaller declines. This pattern does not appear to be driven by institutional frictions, financial crises,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012947635
and Porter (1981) and Shiller (1981a). It appears that neither small sample bias, rational bubbles nor some standard …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013141042
We provide a model for why high beta assets are more prone to speculative overpricing than low beta ones. When investors disagree about the common factor of cash-flows, high beta assets are more sensitive to this macro-disagreement and experience a greater divergence-of-opinion about their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013097774
financial index investment in recent years did not cause massive bubbles in agricultural futures prices …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081510
-sales constraints, that this is where the similarity ends. Equity bubbles are loud: price and volume go together as investors speculate … payoff is bounded. Debt bubbles then require an optimism bias among investors. But greater optimism leads to less speculative … trading as investors view the debt as safe and having limited upside. Debt bubbles are hence quiet--high price comes with low …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013089619