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Simple regression tests that have power against the alternatives that. asset prices and expected future asset returns are excessively volatile are developed and performed for the foreign exchange and stock markets. These tests have a number of advantages over alternative, variance hounds...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012786275
This paper addresses how creditor protection affects the volatility of stock market prices. Credit protection reduces … volatility in 40 countries over the period from 1984 to 2004. Estimated probabilities of a liquidity crisis are used as a proxy … price volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012776957
Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is associated with about a 40%...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013294960
role for credit growth (beyond its role in constructing the inflation forecast) would reduce the volatility of output and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013137616
It appears that volatility in equity markets is asymmetric: returns and conditional volatility are negatively … correlated. We provide a unified framework to simultaneously investigate asymmetric volatility at the firm and the market level … empirical evidence on asymmetry to Japanese stocks. Although volatility asymmetry is present and significant at the market and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783965
intraday data and nonparametric volatility measures, along with a new jump detection technique and appropriate conditional … alleviate microstructure frictions for realized volatility estimation. Size and power of the procedure are explored through …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012777343
volatility forecast, coupled with a parametric lognormal-normal mixture distribution implied by the theoretically and empirically … forecasting of daily and lower frequency volatility and return distributions. Most procedures for modeling and forecasting … ARCH or stochastic volatility models, which often perform poorly at intraday frequencies. Use of realized volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012787458
introduce a model for asset return dynamics with a drift component, a volatility component and mutually exciting jumps known as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013146261
A number of studies have identifed patterns of positive correlation of returns, or comovement, among different traded securities. We distinguish three views of such comovement. The traditional 'fundamentals' view explains the comovement of securities through positive correlations in the rational...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012787252
that, after monetary policy announcements, the conditional volatility rises more for firms with stickier prices than for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085909