At the zero lower bound, the central bank's inability to offset shocks endogenously generates volatility. In this …-contingent optimal monetary and fiscal policies can attenuate this endogenous volatility by stabilizing the distribution of future … outcomes. Fluctuations in uncertainty and the zero lower bound help our model match the unconditional and stochastic volatility …

-diffusions, and models of stochastic volatility. This paper explores the statistical properties of these models with a view to …

and time-varying disaster risk with perturbation, Taylor projection, and Smolyak collocation. Our main finding is that …

probability distributions. This paper also explores the theoretical foundations of risk ranking, including proving a key …

the mean and volatility of equity returns. Our model assumes a small risk of a rare disaster that is calibrated based on … the international data on large consumption declines. We allow the risk of this rare disaster to be stochastic, which … turns out to be crucial to the model's ability to explain both equity volatility and option prices. We explore different …

We exploit direct model-free measures of daily equity return volatility and correlation obtained from high …, solidify and extend existing characterizations of stock return volatility and correlation. We find that the unconditional … portfolio diversification when the market is most volatile. Our findings are broadly consistent with a latent volatility fact or …

forecasting of daily and lower frequency volatility and return distributions. Most procedures for modeling and forecasting … ARCH or stochastic volatility models, which often perform poorly at intraday frequencies. Use of realized volatility … and forecasting. Building on the theory of continuous-time arbitrage-free price processes and the theory of quadratic …

uncertainty, defined as the common volatility in the unforecastable component of a large number of economic indicators. Our …